Super Bowl MVP Odds Favor Lamar Jackson Ahead of Brock Purdy Entering Divisional Round Playoffs

Dec 31, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws during the during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsBaltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is the +325 favorite in the Super Bowl MVP oddsEight of the top 10 contenders are all QBsKansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (+700) is the only past winner among this group

When it comes to betting the Super Bowl MVP odds, it’s a case of QB or not QB. In the past 14 big games, the quarterback of the winning team has been the one proclaiming that he was going to Disneyland, one of the perks of winning the Super Bowl MVP, on 10 occasions.

In this year’s betting odds, QBs are again dominating the lines. It’s Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson who’s set as the +325 chalk to lift the award. Following him in order are Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is a two-time winner of the Super Bowl MVP.

After that group, you get to the first non-QB in the betting line. It’s San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey at +800. But if he’s to win, McCaffrey will really need to buck the odds. It’s been 26 years since a RB was Super Bowl MVP.

Let’s take a look at the contenders and a couple of sleepers in the Super Bowl MVP odds.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

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Jackson Will Get Plenty of Super Bowl MVP Action

Coming off a regular season in which he finished fourth in the NFL in passer rating (102.7) and fifth in yards per completion (12.0) while leading Baltimore to an NFL-best 13-4 record, Jackson is the overwhelming favorite in the regular season NFL MVP odds.  He’s certain to get plenty of Super Bowl MVP love from the betting public as well.

Lamar Jackson: 92.3 PFF grade since week 15

1st among QBs 👑 pic.twitter.com/XmVzWwbSEq

— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) January 16, 2024

Here’s where things get interesting, though. In the last 15 seasons, players who would win the MVP that season are just 9-6 straight up in their opening playoff game. That group includes Jackson. In 2019, he won the NFL MVP while leading Baltimore to the NFL’s top record. But the Ravens were humbled in the NFL Divisional Round playoffs by the Tennessee Titans. In fact, Jackson is 1-3 SU in the NFL playoffs.

Last season, Mahomes was the NFL’s regular season and Super Bowl MVP. He was the seventh ever to turn this double in the same season and the first since Kurt Warner of the Rams in 1999. What’s the likelihood of it happening two years in a row?

Who’s Super Bowl MVP If 49ers Win Big Game?

It’s the 49ers who are the chalk in the Super Bowl odds, and Purdy is second behind Jackson in the Super Bowl MVP betting line at +375. It’s curious to note that there are five 49ers players among the first 12 slots in the odds for this betting market.

Beyond Purdy, there’s also McCaffrey (+800). The versatile back shared the NFL lead with 21 TDs. A pair of WRs – Deebo Samuel (+3000) and Brandon Aiyuk (+5000) are next among San Francisco contenders. They might be worth a small wager. Over the past five Super Bowls, two MVPs were WR.

The fifth San Francisco player is Nick Bosa at +8000. But you have to go back to Super Bowl 20 and Chicago’s Richard Dent to find a DL being named MVP.

Allen Key to Bills Ending Super Bowl Drought

The current Bills are infamous for not getting to the Super Bowl, unlike the Bills of yesteryear, who were infamous for not winning the Super Bowl. Could this be the year that Buffalo exorcises all of these demons?

No QB has been hotter in the last six weeks than Buffalo’s Allen. He finished the regular season fifth in TD passes (29) and fourth in passing yards (4,306). Factor in his 15 rushing TDs and Allen accounted for 44 TDs during the regular season. He added another four TDs in Buffalo’s Wild Card Weekend win over Pittsburgh.

The Postseason Classic 🏆

Can Josh Allen lead the #Bills to their first playoff win against the #Chiefs ? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/wedQmH10IT

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 16, 2024

Speaking of exorcising demons, the Bills are riding a 6-0 SU streak as they play host to the Chiefs and Mahomes, the team responsible for ending Buffalo’s season in two of the last three years.

There’s just a feeling that something special is going on in Buffalo this season.

Super Bowl MVP Pick: Josh Allen (Bills) +600

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