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Expert Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Dec 23, 2023 · 7:04 AM PST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) slaps hands with guard Nick Leverett (left) before taking the field for warmups on Sunday, December 17, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Tampa Bay defeated the Green Bay Packers, 34-20.This week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from eight different games for Week 16Are the Cowboys and Ravens plays as road dogs in Miami and San Fran in what looks likethe games of the week?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
The holiday season is here and we’ll do our best to deliver a few winning NFL ATS picks this Christmas with our best bets for the weekend below. Can the Bills roll the Chargers? Can Dallas go into Miami and get a win after last week’s heavy loss? And are the Ravens the play on MNF getting points? Read on to get all of our top Week 16 NFL picks against the spread here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals -2.5 | Bills -12.5 | Falcons -2.5 |
| Bills -12.5 | Titans +3 | Buccaneers -2.5 |
| Cardinals +4.5 | Ravens +5.5 | Cowboys +1.5 |
| Record: 22-20-3 | Record: 14-28-3 | Record: 21-22-2 |
The closest to a consensus we have this week comes in the form of the Bills laying 12.5-point over the Chargers on Saturday night. Other NFL ATS picks include plays on the Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Ravens, Falcons, Buccaneers and Cowboys.
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Ryan Metivier
Bengals (-2.5)
When Cincinnati and Pittsburgh last played, it was Jake Browning’s first start and Pittsburgh eeked out a 16-10 win. Since that time the Bengals have won three straight with Browning at the helm, while scoring 34, 34 and 27 points.
It’s a much different story for the Steelers who have lost three straight, scoring 10, 18 and 13 points. They’ve also gone from Kenny Pickett, to Mitch Trubisky and now finally Mason Rudolph. Make no mistake, despite Pittsburgh’s 7-7 record, Pickett and Trubisky are not good quarterbacks and despite their poor play all season Rudolph never beat them out for playing time.
He technically has more experience (18 career games) compared to the rookie Browning. But Browning has this Cincy offense rolling right now and gets the nod from me for my Week 16 picks against the spread.
Bills (-12.5)
Two weeks ago Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders scored zero points against the Vikings. Zero. Last week that same team put up 63 points against this Chargers team. A Raiders’ offense that ranks 24th in PPG (18.9).
It was both the most points ever allowed in Chargers’ history and the most points ever scored in Raiders’ history. It cost Brandon Staley his job. Maybe the Chargers get that vaunted ‘new coach bump’ but they don’t have much to work with. Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are out and this Chargers’ defense ranks 30th versus the pass, while giving up the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers and the fourth-most yards to tight ends.
Josh Allen, fifth in passing scores this season, could be in for a huge day. The Bills did after all just put up wins over both the Chiefs (20-17) and Cowboys (31-10) last week.
"That defense, and that's Brandon Staley's pedigree…they're 29th in yards allowed, 29th in passing and they look like it."
Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit weigh in on the Chargers defense.
Raiders led the Chargers 14-0 at the time and it soon became 21-0. pic.twitter.com/izviePEnFg
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 15, 2023
Cardinals (+4.5)
In Justin Fields’ career he has never been favord by more than three points. That’s hard to imagine yet true. Or maybe it shouldn’t be. Overall he’s burned up NFL ATS tickets regularly being 13-21-1 ATS overall and 1-3-0 ATS as a favorite.
So the fact that the Bears (5-9 SU), and Fields, are 4.5-point favorites over anyone right now is a head-scratcher.
Arizona is only 3-11 themselves but did score 29 points against San Fran last week and won by 14 points the week prior, so they’re still trying. Plus. Kyler Murray in an underdog role is about as good as Fields is bad when it comes to ATS picks, being 23-13-2 ATS as a dog. He’s also 15-5-2 ATS overall on the road.
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Bob Duff
Bills (-12.5)
Sunday’s win over Dallas got Buffalo back on track and the Bills will keep their playoff drive in overdrive as they dismantle a woeful bunch of Chargers. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS over the past four games.
The Chargers are a solid 4-1 ATS in the last five home games facing Buffalo. More recently, LA is 1-5 ATS in the last six games. facing any team.
Titans (+3)
Along with that 3-1 home ATS record this season, Tennessee is also 4-1 ATS at home in the last five meetings with Seattle. The Titans are 6-1 ATS overall in the last season facing the Seahawks.
The Seahawks though are 1-0 ATS as a road underdog this season. Seattle is also 5-2 ATS as an away team in 2023.
Lamar Jackson is 19-1 against NFC teams in his career 🤯
The Ravens are currently +200 to beat the 49ers on Christmas 🎄 pic.twitter.com/f3D4WFhm1p
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) December 22, 2023
Ravens (+5.5)
Baltimore is an impressive 20-4-1 ATS in the past 25 games the team has been a betting underdog. The Ravens are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
The 49ers are 16-5 ATS in the club’s past 21 home games. As well, San Francisco is 16-5 ATS in the team’s last 21 MNF games.
Zach Reger
Falcons (-2.5)
The Falcons were just embarrassed on the road last week against the Panthers, so it feels weird picking them again, but it is nearly impossible for them to not play better this Sunday. Atlanta’s defense has played well this season, and with the uncertainty in the Colts backfield, the Falcons defense should limit Indianapolis’s opportunities to score.
This is essentially a must-win for Atlanta, and they are starting Taylor Heinicke to provide a spark to the offense. In his three games that he has played in this season, the Falcons have scored 23, 28, and 23 points. That should be enough for the Falcons to bounce back and stay alive in the NFC South race.
2023-2024 NFL Playoff Bracket – NFL Playoff Picture & Super Bowl ScheduleRead More
Buccaneers (-2.5)
Staying in the NFC South, the Buccaneers have won three in a row, all of which have been by at least three points. The Jaguars on the other hand have lost three in a row. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play, so Jacksonville will be starting CJ Beathard against Tampa Bay’s defense.
The Jaguars defense has had a hard time stopping anyone, so Tampa Bay’s offense should stay hot at home and cover for our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread.
Cowboys (+1.5)
The Cowboys are a different team on the road, but this is a good bounce-back spot for Dallas. Their five-game winning streak ended last week at Buffalo, and now they are on the road again in Miami.
Despite their road woes, the Cowboys have the firepower on offense and defense to come out on top. The Dolphins have yet to beat a team above .500 this year, and that should continue.
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