Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/27)

Our last MLB Player Prop article on Thursday was one of the most satisfying of the season, even though we broke even for the day at 1-1, as our correct wager backed Dylan Cease to record a win on the day he threw the second no-hitter in San Diego Padres franchise history. While we are not tipping anyone to match that feat today, we do expect a particular NL southpaw to struggle, and we are covering the stolen bases market for the first time all season with one of our three picks.

Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.

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    Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks

    Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.

    (MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 hits (+145)

    Something seems off with the Baltimore Orioles lately, as they have gone 6-11 in their last 17 games, and seemingly still hold the lead in the AL East only because the New York Yankees have struggled more. Baltimore’s struggles in that stretch can largely be pinned on an underperforming offense (relative to it’s rest of the season success), and few have struggled more than Adley Rutschman, who slashed .151/.274/.283 with a .251 wOBA in the previous 16 games entering the weekend.

    Perhaps Rutschman is still worn out and in need of a day off as he did not get the typical All-Star Break that most players get, but he has gone hitless in eight of the last 12 games. And while today’s starting pitcher, Michael King, is slightly tougher on right-handed batters than lefties, Rutschman is in by far his worse of the two splits as a switch hitter. The catcher/DH has slashed .221/.298/.363 against right-handed pitchers and .360/.409/.576 against southpaws, so there is value in him going hitless today.

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    Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 earned runs (-105) 

    Entering Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays have dominated left-handed starting pitchers this season, as their 17-9 record against southpaws was the third-best in the majors behind only the Dodgers and Guardians. Tampa Bay typically stacks a lineup full of right-handed batters when facing a lefty, and it ranked seventh in batting average and wRC+, and 11th in on-base percentage and slugging against left-handed pitchers. Those rankings drop to 21st or worse in all of those categories against right-handed pitching, including having the second-worst slugging percentage in the majors.

    While there is no doubt that trading away Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners is a big blow to the Rays lineup, especially against southpaws, there are still players like Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri, and Isaac Paredes, all who have OPSs of .874 or better at home against left-handed pitchers this season. Abbott has the second-worst K/9 rate of all Reds starting pitchers (6.9 K/9) and he has allowed seven runs in his last 10 innings to two current non-playoff teams (Nationals and Marlins), which does not bode well for his chances of success against the Rays.

    Jarren Duran Over 0.5 stolen bases (+250) 

    Marcus Stroman heads back to the "House of Horrors" that is Fenway Park, as he took the loss in his last visit there on June 16 after laboring through five innings where he reached 102 pitches. Much of the reason for his inflated pitch count was that he allowed seven hits (tied for his most since May 9) and four walks (the fourth time he walked four-plus batters in a game this season). 

    The last time the Red Sox faced Stroman, they stole a franchise record nine bases, as manager Alex Cora and the rest of the coaching staff clearly identified something in the righty’s slow delivery they could exploit. Duran was responsible for two of those swipes, and his 22 stolen bases are second on the team. Duran is coming off a season where he was 24/26 on stolen base attempts, and his 87.3% stolen base success rate (55/63) suggests he should be successful in stealing if he does run today.

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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Mike Spector