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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Raiders vs. Bills.
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NFL Betting Primer: Raiders vs. Bills
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills – Spread Line: BUF -8.5
The Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites, and the line as moved all the way to 8.5/9.5 at some sportsbook. Bettors are not buying into the Las Vegas Raiders’ road win over the Broncos €“ which I nailed last week as did the Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions prop €“ and forgiving Buffalo for a prime-time OT collapse versus an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team.
But Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 17-9 over his last 25 games. Garoppolo is no world-beater, but when’s kept healthy and upright, he can win games for the teams he plays on as he showed in Week 1.
And the Raiders are hardly short on offensive weapons between Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs should be able to find running room versus a run defense that got diced up for 172 yards at 6.1 yards per carry. Also don’t believe there’s a Bills cornerback that can hang with alpha WR, Davante Adams.
They also have Hunter Renfrow if Jakobi Meyers can’t play due to a concussion. And the Raiders OL shined in Week 1, allowing just four pressures on Jimmy G (14%).
The Bills also have been super overrated against the spread since they started to fall off last season. Reminder, this team was 13.5-home favorites against the Miami Dolphins starting a 3rd-string QB, and they won by 3 points last year in the postseason. Buffalo is 4-8 against the spread over their last 12 games, many of which they have been heavy favorites in. Will they win? No doubt. But Buffalo showed their fair share of issues Monday night on both sides of the ball which suggests to me the Raiders can hang around to cover the largest spread (tied with Dallas and New York) on the Week 2 betting card. The Bills aren’t the 10-point home favorite you want to bet on this week.
Given how undervalued the Raiders’ offense is, I also like the over in this game at 46.5 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook). The Bills are 6-6 toward the over in their last 12 games, but three of the unders have been versus the Jets (including this past MNF). LV’s team total is also firmly in play at just 17.5 points (DK Sportsbook -112)
The Raiders know they don’t have a strong secondary, so they sat back comfortably in a two-high shell versus the Broncos in Week 1. The result? 12 targets for a 38% target share to the team’s RBs. That was the 4th-highest in Week 1. Denver targeted TEs at the 7th-highest rate (22%). Russell Wilson threw to WRs at just a 41% clip €“ the third-lowest mark on the week. His aDOT rank was 5.0 €“ 4th lowest among 32 QBs in Week 1.
Considering how wild Josh Allen was on Monday Night Football, I’d bet he dials it back and looks more to his underneath options between the TEs and RBs because that is what the Raiders defense will most likely give him.
- My picks: Raiders +8.5 (BetMGM -110), Over 46.5 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Dalton Kincaid OVER 29.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks.com/FanDuel Sportsbook), James Cook OVER 12.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook), Josh Jacobs over 66.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook), Davante Adams over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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