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Today’s full slate of MLB action provided some interesting choices in the NRFI department, and I settled on 3 picks for a variety of different reasons. One game features two offenses that have become fade candidates of mine as they are consistently overrated, one game features two of the higher-powered offenses in the league with pitchers that excel at avoiding damage, and the last game contains two pitchers that I’m relatively high on compared to the market going against two bottom-half offenses. None of the plays involves heavy juice either, so let’s end the week on a high note and get these tickets to the window.
2024 NRFI (39-28; +3.10 Units)
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB Betting Systems
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning Bets
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers €“ NRFI (-115 @ FanDuel)
Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for Toronto tonight in the midst of what has been a very solid season, as he is one of the top trade targets for teams in need of starting pitching as we approach the trade deadline. Kikuchi’s swing-and-miss stuff has been particularly great this year, as he ranks above the 70th percentile in whiff%, chase% and K%. His underlying numbers also suggest that he’s been trending in the right direction, as his xwOBA has come back down to league average after swooning a bit prior to the All-Star break. Kikuchi draws a Rangers lineup that has left a lot to be desired coming off of last year’s World Series, as they currently rank in the bottom half of baseball in AVG and HR and bottom-10 in OPS and SLG.
The Rangers will send Andrew Heaney to the mound, who is quietly having one of the best years of his long career. While Heaney certainly doesn’t throw hard, his chase rate actually trumps that of Kikuchi (85th percentile), and he’s been able to miss barrels at a rate that has him in the top half of the league. His walk rate ranks in the top 1/3 of pitchers, his whiff% and K% both rank in the top half of the league, and his xERA and xBA both sit right around league average, suggesting that his numbers are pretty indicative of the pitcher he has been. The Blue Jays lineup has been incredibly disappointing in its own right, mirroring the Rangers in nearly every statistical category except for the fact that they have hit fewer home runs, ranking in the bottom-5 in that category. They will also be in their worse offensive splits against Heaney, which is another feather in his cap for this matchup.
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers €“ NRFI (-104 @ FanDuel)
Framber Valdez gets the ball for the €˜Stros tonight, once again having another successful season as the stalwart of the Houston pitching staff. Though a lot of Valdez’s underlying metrics might be a cause for concern, his great equalizer is his ability to induce the ground ball. Valdez ranks in the 98th percentile in that statistic this year, generating ground balls at a 62.4% clip. He has also done a phenomenal job of missing barrels this season, as his 4.7% barrel rate is the highest of his career and ranks in the 90th percentile. Though the Dodgers lineup is clearly formidable and tough to poke holes in, it does help that Valdez will have the lefty bats Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in their clearly worse hitting splits. I trust Framber to avoid the hard contact and get through the first inning clean against this tough Dodgers team.
Gavin Stone will toe the slab for the opposing Dodgers this evening, who has turned into a revelation in what has been an injury-riddled pitching staff. Stone has been among the elite at generating soft contact, ranking in the top quartile of all pitchers in barrel%, hard-hit%, and average exit velocity. His walk rate falls just shy of the 70th percentile, and although he does not strike out a ton of batters, his 83rd percentile chase rate is exceptional. The Astros are another lineup that I certainly do not go looking to fade on a consistent basis, but their numbers are slightly depressed against RHP, and I like Stone’s ability to limit hard contact in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals €“ NRFI (-125 @ Caesars)
Veteran RHP Sonny Gray will go for St. Louis tonight, having yet another rock-solid season as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Gray’s calling card has always been his ability to generate whiffs, and his 2024 whiff% (71st percentile) and K% (92nd percentile) suggest that hasn’t changed a bit. He has great control of the strike zone, walking only 5.6% of the batters he faces, and his ground ball rate ranks above the 60th percentile at a very respectable 45.7%. His 3.55 xERA also mirrors that of his 3.54 xERA, which implies that he’s pitched essentially identical to his expectation. While this Nationals lineup is improved from previous years, they still rank in the bottom half of baseball in AVG and OBP and have really been lacking power, ranking in the bottom 5 in OPS, SLG, and HR.
The last pitcher to spotlight is Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore, whom I have been extremely high on since he made his debut in 2022. Gore has some really excellent advanced numbers, ranking in the 65th percentile in both barrel% and hard-hit% while ranking in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity. He’s no stranger to the swing and miss either, as he ranks in the top quartile in both whiff% and K%. Every single one of those categories has improved from his first two years in the league, yet his counting stats are relatively unimpressive, which suggests to me that he’s been a bit unlucky this season. I expect Gore to have plenty of success tonight against a middling Cardinals lineup that ranks average to below average in nearly all offensive categories and struggles mightily against LHP compared to RHP.
