Packers vs Vikings Same-Game Parlay Predictions for SNF Week 17

Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall (16) passes the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY SportsBoth a game back of the final playoff berth in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 17Minnesota has benched Nick Mullens in favor of rookie QB Jaren HallSee a +675 Packers vs Vikings same-game parlay for SNF on Dec. 31

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The Minnesota Vikings (7-8, 2-5 home, 7-5-3 ATS) are embodying that mantra as they get set to host the Green Bay Packers (7-8, 3-5 away, 7-8 ATS) on Sunday Night Football in Week 17. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has benched veteran Nick Mullens in favor of rookie pivot Jaren Hall, who will make his second career start in a game Minnesota must win to keep its season alive.

Today’s Green Bay vs Minnesota SGP banks on Hall, who’s looked good during a small sample size, continuing to be productive for a Viking offense that can’t run the ball to save its life.

Packers vs Vikings Same-Game Parlay Picks

The first leg is Hall to reach at least 225 passing yards, while the second two legs are both, at their core, wagers on the Minnesota defense continuing to perform like a top-five unit: first-half total under 21.5 and the Minnesota moneyline.

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My Week 15 Ravens/Jaguars SGP came up one leg short, but I remain ahead +5.13 units this season on NFL same-game parlays.

Packers vs Vikings Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Hall Over 224.5 Passing Yards

The rationale for this pick is three-fold: first, Hall looked comfortable in his first career start, going 5-of-6 for 78 yards at Atlanta in Week 9 before getting knocked out of the game with a concussion.

Second, Minnesota’s offense has, all season, been heavily reliant on the pass. Their 355 rush attempts are fifth-fewest in the league, and their 3.9 yards per carry are tied for seventh-worst. Hall is going to have the ball in his hands more often than not.

How does the Vikings coaching staff look at this drive that Jaren Hall put together against the Falcons and not see if he can do it again?? He CANNOT be worse than Mullens or Dobbs man. #Skol pic.twitter.com/H4xHvn2I9s

— PJ (@PandemicJones) December 24, 2023

Third, Green Bay’s defense is bad. The Packers sit 30th in DVOA and give up the tenth-most yards per game (352.9). They’re also missing starting corner Jaire Alexander, who was suspended for “conduct detrimental to the team”.

The absence of TE TJ Hockenson is a concern. He would make the perfect safety blanket for the young QB. But with Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn healthy,  the Vikings have more than enough weapons to cause problems for an undermanned Green Bay secondary.

GB vs MIN SGP Pick #2: First Half Under 21.5

While I do expect Hall to find success against a Green Bay defense that’s missing key pieces in the secondary, I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game, especially early on. It would make sense for O’Connell to ease his rookie QB into the game with short, easy throws.

The Minnesota defense is also likely to stuff the Packer attack on the regular. Minnesota sits fifth in Defensive DVOA and is averaging just 17.4 points against per game in its last ten.

The last five Minnesota games, in particular, have been extremely low scoring in the first 30 minutes, averaging just 13.2 points before halftime.

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Green Bay vs Minnesota Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Vikings Moneyline

The last leg of today’s parlay is the Vikings to win the game at -116. Minnesota has been uncharacteristically bad at home this season, going just 2-5 at US Bank Stadium. They went 8-1 at home last year and 5-3 the year prior.

The Packers, meanwhile, have one of the starkest home/road splits over the last half decade, going a league-best 38-12-1 at home since 2018, but just 24-25 on the road. Green Bay was able to stem a two-game losing streak last time out, but it was a far-from-convincing 33-30 victory at the two-win Carolina Panthers as 3.5-point road favorites. The Packers were out-gained 394-369 by the Panthers and needed a last-minute field goal from Anders Carlson to escape with the win and stay in playoff contention.

The analytics indicate the Vikings are a better team: they rate 17th in overall DVOA compared to the Packers in 21st, and they own a better point differential (+15 vs +2). Add in home-field advantage and a rookie QB who’s being undervalued, and I see value on Minnesota in a pick’em game.